Favorites win the Finals ~70% of the time
Since 2000, the team favored at the start of the Finals has won 17 of 25 series — roughly 68%. The eight upsets are memorable (Mavs 2011, Pistons 2004, Heat 2006) but they're the exception. Default to the favorite unless you have a specific reason not to.
Home court matters more than people think
The team with home-court advantage has won 19 of 25 Finals since 2000 (76%). Game 7s have NEVER been won on the road since 1978. If a series goes the distance, the home team is the pick — full stop.
The Game 1 winner wins the series ~70% of the time
Game 1 isn't just a game — it's a leading indicator. The Game 1 winner has gone on to win the series in 18 of the last 25 Finals. If you missed locking a Finals pick before Game 1, lock it after Game 1 ends. The series price is usually still good.
Crowd picks on Finals games
On FanRivo, public consensus on Finals games has hit ~55% — slightly better than the regular season. The reason: more fans paying attention means more independent information, which is exactly when the wisdom of crowds works best (see our guide on that).
What to actually pick
Three rules: (1) Pick the favorite if home court agrees. (2) If Game 1 flips the favorite, switch your series pick. (3) For individual games, fade the public when the line moves against them — that's where sharp Finals money lives.