How totals work
A typical NBA total looks like 224.5. If both teams combine for 225+, the over cashes. 224 or fewer, the under cashes. The half-point eliminates pushes.
What moves a total
Pace, injuries, rest, and recent shooting form. A back-to-back with a big man out usually drops the total. A pair of run-and-gun teams (Pacers, Kings) push totals into the 240s. Weather is the equivalent in soccer — wind and rain crush totals.
When to take the over
Two top-10 pace teams, both rested, both shooting well from three. When the public hammers the under (defense is boring), there's often value on the over.
When to take the under
Playoff-style matchups, key offensive injuries, or a primetime slot where stars get extra defensive attention. Unders also win when the game gets out of hand and the winning team's starters sit.